Astronauts Attempt to Fly SpaceX Falcon9 - Dragon2 Today - May 27, 2020

One of my first clear childhood memories was being glued to a black and white TV set with my mom, as Astronauts set foot on the moon during the Apollo program!

I was just a toddler, and yet it blew my mind into a lifelong passion and pursuit of science and becoming an Engineer.

Growing up in the 70s, there was a feeling in the air that anything was possible.  Surely soon, by the 80s or 90s or the latest, early 2000s: we would have visited Mars, have a lunar base, and have flying cars?

The Space Shuttle was pretty cool, to be sure, but choosing that route had us circling the planet in low earth orbit (LEO) for 30 years.

The end of the cold war brought with it a slowing of the space race.

Then changing USA government administrations, with political motives, began switch shifting NASAs manned program objectives and budgets.  The clear vision, direction and objective based push at NASA seemed lost. 

And, we seemed quite literally stuck going around and around in circles in LEO.

Slowly, the dream faded to black...and the planets and stars seemed almost unreachable...

Were we not to reach for the stars? Were we destined to be forever grounded on our planetary cradle?

Enter Elon Musk and other new wealthy entrepreneurs with a passion for space with new ideas, ingenuity, ambition and an unstoppable drive.

SpaceX is born...and the dream is alive and being realized at a much faster pace then ever before! 

2008 saw the first private company achieve orbit with the SpaceX Falcon 1 and since then there has been unprecedented evolution:

SpaceX Falcon 9 first orbital class boosters landing in 2015;

Flying a true heavy lift rocket with SpaceX Falcon Heavy, sending Elons' Red Tesla Roadster and "Starman" out on a heliocentric orbit beyond Mars in 2018;

And rapid prototyping of SpaceX Starship, the most powerful heavy lift and lander system even created, with planned manned missions to the moon, mars and beyond.

Once again there are serious discussions and even a signed and awarded contract from NASA to SpaceX to design, build and fly a Lunar Optimized Starship to permit building a permanent moon base.

Elon Musks vision statement is that the primary purpose of SpaceX is to make human life interplanetary, with a planned production run of 1000 Starships to build a colony on Mars! 

Which brings us to today.  

Today, weather and wind permitting, SpaceX plans on launching astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the International Space Station (ISS) on their exemplary Falcon 9 fitted with Dragon 2 Crew capsule on top. 

Scheduled for today, Wednesday May 27, 2020 at 16:33 EDT or 13:33 PST (our time zone).   

Back up windows for incorrect wind/weather are Saturday May 30 at 15:22 EDT or 12:22 PST and Sunday May 31 at 15:00 EDT or 12:00 PST.

It will be the first time USA astronauts will be flying from USA soil on a USA designed and built rocket since the last Space Shuttle Atlantis in July 2011. They will be launching from historic launch pad 39A, the same pad the Apollo moon missions and many Space Shuttle missions were flown from.  

Since retiring the Space Shuttle in 2011, American astronauts have been hitching rides on the Russian Soyuz to get to the ISS.

Booster recovery will be on the SpaceX drone ship "Of Course I Still Love You" also marking the first landing capture and re-use of an orbital class rocket booster ridden by astronauts. 

It will be a true demo mission, with the astronauts testing manual maneuvering and other systems, before the actual docking, so they can safely over-ride autonomous docking with the ISS if needed.

They may stay up to 119 days on ISS, or shorter, depending on how soon mission objectives are achieved.

Then, shortly after departing ISS, a fiery re-entry to earth's atmosphere. 

 

Parachutes deploy and slow the capsule to a soft splash-down, after which Bob and Doug are picked up by SpaceX's ship GO Navigator

Here is the complete SpaceX Crewed Falcon 9 - Dragon 2 Demo 2 Mission Profile Animation: 

 

When engineering flight systems and safety protocols for launching aircraft, we always talk about acceptable flight envelopes, launch commit criteria, and "go"  or "no go" decisions. 

In paragliding, iParaglide has engineered a robust series of flight safety protocols including launch commit criteria which helps paragliding pilots make prudent "go" and "no go" launch decisions. 

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iParaglide's "Go" or "No Go" Launch Commit Criteria for iP2 Paragliding Pilots:

A. Pilot in good physical and mental condition.

B. Equipment suitable for pilots skill level (iP2) and carefully inspected for safe condition.

C. Terrain at launch, in flight, and Landing Zone (LZ) suitable for pilot skill level (iP2).

D. Weather suitable for pilots skill level (iP2 Pilot):

1. Fly only during daylight hours, occurring no sooner than 30 minutes before sunrise or no later than 30 minutes after sunset: to permit Visual Flight Rules (VFR) flying. 
2. Launch summit and entire flight path to LZ completely free and clear of cloud to permit VFR flying.
3. No precipitation occurring within a 20 km radius.
4. No visible signs of towering or dark cumulus clouds, cumulonimbus clouds, virga, lenticular clouds, thunder, lighting or vertical development within a 20 km radius.
5. Forecast Peak Lapse Rate less than -2.3C/1000ft.
6. Peak Base Wind on launch and landing less than 15 km/hr.
7. Maximum gust variation to base wind on launch and landing less than a delta of 3 km/hr.
8. Maximum angle of wind to launch slope and landing strip less than 10 degrees

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Thinking about the "go" or "no go" decision for paragliding, I decided to search for criteria SpaceX & NASA uses in proceeding or scrubbing a Falcon 9 launch.  Here are they are:

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NASA - SpaceX "Go" or "No Go" Falcon 9 Launch Commit Criteria

NASA/SpaceX has identified the Falcon 9 vehicle cannot be launched under the following conditions:

• sustained wind at the 162 feet (49 m) level of the launch pad in excess of 30 knots (56 km/h; 35 mph),
• upper-level conditions containing wind shear that could lead to control problems for the launch vehicle,
• launch through a cloud layer greater than 4,500 feet (1,400 m) thick that extends into freezing temperatures,
• launch within 19 kilometres (10 nmi) of cumulus clouds with tops that extend into freezing temperatures,
• within 19 kilometres (10 nmi) of the edge of a thunderstorm that is producing lightning within 30 minutes after the last lightning is observed,
• within 19 kilometres (10 nmi) of an attached thunderstorm anvil cloud,
• within 9.3 kilometres (5 nmi) of disturbed weather clouds that extend into freezing temperatures and contain moderate or greater precipitation,
• within 5.6 kilometres (3 nmi) of a thunderstorm debris cloud,
• through cumulus clouds formed as the result of or directly attached to a smoke plume.

The following should delay launch:

• delay launch for 15 minutes if field mill instrument readings within 9.3 kilometres (5 nmi) of the launch pad exceed +/- 1,500 volts per meter, or +/- 1,000 volts per meter,
• delay launch for 30 minutes after lightning is observed within 10 nautical miles (19 km; 12 mi) of the launch pad or the flight path.

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If things were to go sideways on the launch pad, after liftoff, and even as deep as 8 minutes 44 seconds into the mission just prior to achieving orbit: Bob and Doug have an option to abort using the Super Draco abort system.

We hope the skies are friendly today so that a "go" for flight can be called and that the flight proceeds nominally, according to plan.

Godspeed Falcon 9 - Dragon 2!

Godspeed Bob Behnken, Doug Hurley, SpaceX and NASA!